Market data and outlook

• Global deal value is up 15% per BCG, with megadeals above 2021 peak
• 60 megadeals and USD 4.4 trillion in nine months, with Q3 slowing
• Germany's deal value is up roughly 122%, carried by a few megadeals
• European target M&A hit $773 billion, up 78% and a near two decade high
• A 33,000 asset exit backlog could take nine years to clear
• DACH volume is flat while value rises and Datasite Prepare activity is up 17%
• Eurozone inflation at 3.2% and ECB rate at 2.5%, yet waiting costs more than acting

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Announced deals and sector consolidation

• Grünenthal acquires Stivarga global rights for up to €375 million
• Huspy buys Integra Finance to enter Italy, and Aptean acquires FleetGO
• MacLean to acquire Delta Star, and ENGIE buys the Trębaczew BESS project
• Bain Capital reportedly bids for Edged US at about $15 billion
• SABIC sells thermoplastics to Mutares, and Thieme to acquire Relias Germany
• EDGE Group closes AKAER, and Flex IT Distribution merges with T1A Group
• Constellation and Valsoft took six in ten vertical software deals

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Due diligence and integration

• Valuation rests on DCF, comparables and precedents, with synergies lifting offers
• Equal $5 million EBITDA sold for $20 million and $45 million
• Integration savings are decided in the first 90 days
• Only one in three acquirers fully achieve their deal thesis
• Unstructured finance data leaves over half of portfolio companies barely exit ready
• DaimlerChrysler's $36 billion merger failed after nine years on culture
• Deep diligence before a strong LOI reads as hesitation to US founders

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AI in M&A

• Deloitte launches an AI powered M&A Platform for deal execution
• Accenture and Snowflake map AI across the deal lifecycle
• A 2026 handbook catalogs more than 200 M&A tools
• DEALSOURCING focus shifts from whether to use AI to where it saves time
• Superhuman's Fathom deal positions context as the AI advantage
• Operating model redesign, not AI itself, is the value lever
• Falling build costs weaken code as a moat, while proprietary data holds value

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Private equity and value creation

• Compressed multiples make value creation a prerequisite, not a differentiator
• 71% cite management quality and 42% call their 100 day plans unrealistic
• Consistent financial data (83%) is the strongest exit lever
• Over 33,000 PE backed companies await exit, with holding periods above five years
• Cash conversion anchors underwriting, with vendor loans and earn-outs back
• In one auction every strategic bid while every leveraged fund passed
• Defence investment now ranks ahead of AI at PwC Deals

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Thanks to Ramakrushna Sahoo, Jon Soos, Luigi Rizzo, Jeffrey Tan, Chiara Operto, James Rose, John M. Davidson, David Blois, Edris Taufiq, Robert Napoli, Kai Hesselmann, Klint C. Kendrick, Douglas Pudney, Brian Franco, Tobias Herrmann, Dr. Meike de Vries, Romain Le Guen, Raaz A., Sandeep Agrawal, Hutton Henry, Thomas Hackett, Maria Rosenstand Bruun, Ali Mamujee, Julian Schulze De la Cruz, Eric Thompson, Sheharyar Khan, Viktor Lobov, Gabriel Baertschi, Jamie Lane, Adam R., Pierre DELANNOY, Mauricio Cabral, Dennis O'Rourke, Tyler Hall, Benjamin Hebborn, Jason James, Frank de Hek, Kinga Charpentier, Louison Garnier, Will Bachman, Dr Fakhara Rizwan, Pit Heimes, Nicolas Rose, Jacob Dahl Eriksen, Ömer F. Güven, Raymond Raimondi, Cristina Chaparro Vaquero, Reece Tomlinson, Stefan Gerhard Schneider, Jan Steinbächer‍, Thomas Kern, Felix Seifert, CFA, Dr. Sascha Haggenmueller, Oskar Volkland, Bastian Cammann, Vincent Zepfel, Mark Reimer, Alexander Z., Hamid Manesh, Stefanie Mattes, Tanja Borowski, Nicole Pleli, Dr. Wolfgang Faisst, Milan Saric-Toplica, Moncef MHASNI, Constanze Schmiedel, Alexander Malessa and Maximilian Schwärecke for contributing insights to this edition. Find the full list of posts and voices on LinkedIn: