Exit backlog and hold periods

• 32,000 unsold PE-backed companies worth $3.8 trillion, per Bain
• Average hold at exit stretches to about seven years
• Only 19% of 2021 buyouts sold by 2025, against about 30% historically
• KKR reports record exits while KPMG sees the lowest exit count since 2021
• Fund economics, not just rates, may explain the stalled exits
• Diagnosing market side versus asset side blocks replaces waiting
• Extra year of hold needs 0.7% to 7.1% EBITDA growth to pay off
• EY finds preparation 12 to 24 months ahead gives the best exits

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Liquidity without a sale

• Apollo puts $2B into Apex through a DPI trade
• Roughly $4 trillion of unrealized NAV sustains demand for DPI trades
• NAV loans pitched as the cheaper route to distributions
• Keyhaven closes a €100m continuation vehicle for Novation Tech
• 29 CV exits of $100m or more year to date, worth $33bn
• Blackstone reportedly raises about $1 billion for a private credit CV
• Pantheon closes $6B secondaries fund, 71% above target
• Moody's sees €41B of dividend recap room in EMEA buyouts

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Exit routes and buyer universe

• RSM reportedly explores a public listing
• Abenójar Tungsten lists in London above £500m market capitalization
• Firmus scraps a $5bn IPO after a $30bn valuation is rejected
• Sponsor premium narrows to 11.5x against 8.9x for corporates
• Apollo reportedly invests $2.6 billion in the Yankees
• Independent sponsors run 2.0x to 3.5x leverage versus 5x to 7x

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Valuation and exit readiness

• Revenue growth drove 75% of 2025 exit value creation, multiple expansion 8%
• Exits cleared a median 19% above reported valuations, per EDHEC
• Recurring revenue lifts contractor sales from $8M to $12M
• Zensho pays $621m for Snowfox after early brand positioning
• A $1M annual AI bill can cost $15M at exit
• GPs estimate sustainability adds 5 to 7% to portfolio EBITDA

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Leadership and talent through a longer hold

• 65% of funds change CEO during the hold, per AlixPartners
• PE portfolio CFOs average 2.5 years in role
• Longer holds shift demand from financial engineers to operators
• Distressed companies weigh a turnaround CFO then a scaling CFO
• KKR closes a record $23 billion fund on operating resources
• FFL Partners closes Fund VI at over $1.35 billion

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LPs, fund economics and reporting

• Flagship buyout funds have grown roughly 35x since the 1990s
• 2019 to 2021 vintages have returned just 0.2x so far
• Larger successor funds followed predecessors with 19.7% median net IRR
• LPs test GP marks against secondary prices
• KKR says cash returned is the measure of performance
• KPMG expects fundraising to concentrate among larger managers

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Credit stress, regulation and market data

• UnitedLex defaults after CVC buyout and sells to Repario
• Consilio and Epiq are the next eDiscovery loans named
• Warren reintroduces bill making PE liable for portfolio debt
• UK ICTS transfer pricing rules will cover most PE-backed groups
• US large deals fall to 68% of deal value
• Lone Star sells IKB Deutsche Industriebank to Crédit Agricole CIB
• PEI merges four publications into one platform with an AI assistant

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Thanks to Mac K., Lisa Maxwell, Eric Kimberling, Ray Nicholls, Jennifer Holland, Richard Toad, Greg Head, Brad Wolfe, Nick Bradley, Jean Max Constant, Nick Francia, Lee McCabe, Justin McGorman, Adam Coffey, Alexis Sikorsky, Chris McClellan, Anthony Caporrino, Jed Johnson, Mark Jansen, Geoffroy de Becdelièvre, Mitch Voigts, Christopher Ekdahl, Allan Koltin, Johnny Schumacher, Michael Lee, Sonali Mahtani, Drew Breneman, John L., Matt T., Andreas Klab, Robert Friedman, Merritt McKenzie, Mike Mesrie, Keith Campbell, Tim Melnyk, Dennis O'Rourke, Peter Martenson, Suraya Yahaya, Simon Clough, Tanguy Catlin, David Haarmeyer, Gary Lu, Liam Colleary Moore, Oliver Doerner, John Luis, Mustafa Siddiqui, Benjamin Forestier, Wayne Marhelski, Chandan Mahajan, Paul Press, Andy Knox, Matthew Dionne, Teddy Mouawad, Alisa Wood, Matteo D'Elia, Jack MacMichael, Dave Wang, Stephen Foley, Andrew Stewart, Sarah Oliver, Yannick Elhag, Frister Haveman, Emily George, Vaishnavi Katamreddy, Harry DeBari, Evan Clark, Jordon Barnett, Kevin Stewart, Christoph Totter, Nicola Ebmeyer, Aaron Naisbitt and Simon Leroux for the insights in this edition. Find the full list of posts and voices on LinkedIn: