Best of LinkedIn: Venture Capital CW 43/ 44

Venture capital in this period is defined by concentration. Record totals are driven by a small group of AI companies and the largest fund brands, while seed stage founders, emerging managers and non-AI sectors face a narrower path to follow-on capital. The result is a market where capital is abundant at the top, selective everywhere else, and increasingly questioned by founders and investors alike.

Date

November 4, 2026

Venture Capital

Thomas Allgeyer

Methodology: Every two weeks we collect most relevant posts on LinkedIn for selected topics and create an overall summary only based on these posts. If you´re interested in the single posts behind, you can find them here: https://linktr.ee/thomasallgeyer. Have a great read!

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AI Capital Concentration

AI took 61% of 2025 global VC, mostly in $100M+ rounds
Over 80% of 2026 VC went to AI, with 10 deals taking 68%
AI took 82.7% of deal value, while established firms raised 88.2% of fund capital
US funding hit a record $515B through Q3, led by five AI giants
AI took 83% of US VC dollars, leaving non-AI startups stuck before Series A
AI took 60% of European VC value in H1 2026
Canada's C$1.6B Cohere stake risks making the state a kingmaker
2026 may mark the cycle peak, raising questions for 2027

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Valuations and Financing Risk

AI native firms command 21.2x revenue multiples versus 5.5x for legacy SaaS
Agentic AI is driving deal sizes and valuations higher, per PitchBook
Early AI revenue no longer secures funding, customer understanding matters more
The AI buildout relies on equity, with $4.2tn of commitments to finance
AI spending depends on VC funded startups, signaling weak revenue quality
A five step framework puts risk adjusted economics ahead of growth

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The Fundraising Playbook

A $30M seed raised in seven days shows the value of a structured process
Series A investors split roughly 10% bad, 80% average, 10% fantastic
Twelve active VCs write $250K to $15M checks, and fit matters most
Equity free programs offer grants and credits, including up to $350K from Cloudflare
Carta launched fixed fee legal teams for seed rounds
An investor reinserted a negotiated out control clause before closing
Single family offices expect patient GPs, as diligence is slow
Chasing $1B outcomes is a trap, smaller exits preserve optionality
Micro grants of $10K to $20K could help New Zealand founders validate ideas

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Funds and Managers

Andreessen Horowitz took over 20% of US VC fundraising
Disruptive raised a $10B fund for ten late stage bets
VCs with early stakes in top AI companies raise bigger funds faster
Funds under $50M remain an opportunity, as Breed VC's $15M fund shows
Big fund brands usually beat emerging managers for founders
Crypto VCs moving to frontier tech face adverse selection
Carta funds hold over $100B unrealized, with DPI a small share of TVPI
Recent closes include 49 Palms, Bison, OrbiMed and Inspired Capital
An operator led CPG fund could offer hands on help beyond capital
Prior top tier fund experience best predicts top VC backing
Family VC is maturing, while Toyota Ventures balances strategy and returns

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Regional Markets

Qatar's portal lets startups pitch 15 listed VC funds
HTGF leads German VC with 503 startups backed
Berlin stays a top European hub despite Germany's 2017 low in Q3 deals
Washington, D.C. raised $861M in VC in 2025
A free guide maps over 80 Chicago venture firms and programs
US first time financings hit a record 8,625 while median seeds shrank

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Founders and Investors: A Widening Gap

88% of VC funded founders receive zero exit value, per a study of 96,000 startups
Bootstrapped founders earn 2.6x larger exits and survive more often
Female founders receive about 2% of VC funding
Vungle followed VC advice to leave gaming and lost ground to Applovin
Too many VCs follow other investors instead of backing conviction
A $100K monthly consulting business is a viable alternative to VC
Many seed companies are stuck before Series A

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Sector Signals

Hardtech founders need purpose built capital, not mega funds
Robotics valuations are inflated, and patient deployment pays off
Off highway autonomy carries different integration costs for retrofit and factory builds
Dual use defense investing offers stronger opportunities than defense only
Climate AI raised about $5.1B in 2026, roughly 10% of climate tech VC
Upwind raised a $400M Series C in cybersecurity
Legal tech's sudden boom shows hot markets signal a lost early advantage
US VC funding is producing accounting software tested on customers too early
First Citizens released a Future of Fintech report on VC backed fintech

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Thanks to Zain Jaffer, Ivelina Dineva, Alejandro Cremades, Sarah Romanko, Asher Siddiqui, Aggie Krajewska, Noah Sanborn Friedman, Nick Moran, Taha Memon, Daria Shamihava, Nazar Gulyk, Filip Kozera, Joshua Stevenson, Chamath Palihapitiya, Aashiesh Chopra, Brendan Rogers, Jason Burke, Brittani Roberts, Jenny Fielding, Alexander Harstrick, Guillermo Flor, Gale Wilkinson, Ilya Strebulaev, Cody Leach, Catrina Wang, Lane Litz, John Cowan, Itamar Novick, Trace Cohen, Nikola Siljanoski, Dallas Price, Jackie DiMonte, Leah Solivan, Colin Hurd, Aram Attar, David Shillingford, Peter Walker, Nic Poulos, Pavel Gvay, Giacomo Tognini, Bryan Cantrill, Fiona Chen, Silvia Biscaldi, Rubén Domínguez Ibar, Konnor Andersen, Henry Ward, Adeo Ressi, John Gannon, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Deedy Das, Greg Head, Sephi Shapira, Dilip Maurya, Ryan Baird, Pavel Prata, Michelle Yi, Robin Haak, Julien Morgan, Nicole DeTommaso, Jason M. Lemkin, Dimitri Zabelin, Steve Kiser, Alex Glushenkov, Brian Foley, Richard Yen, Vahid Fakhr, Paige Soya, Kevin Dowd, Till Rösnick and Moritz Krüsselmann and everyone else who contributed insights to this edition. Find the full list of posts and voices on LinkedIn: