Market and liquidity

• 2,536 US portcos sit at or beyond the exit window
• 35% of PE-backed companies held more than six years
• Exit value up 65% to $482 billion, exit count up under 10%
• European GP carry loan inquiries up 3.4 times in H1 2026
• Dividend recap volume down about 50% through July
• Warburg Pincus sees $4 trillion to $5 trillion of unsold inventory
• Take-private equity checks hit 7.5 times EBITDA, a ten year high
• Munich and Amsterdam panels centred on reopening the exit window

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Deals and exit routes

• Sycamore to sell Boots for $8.9 billion after 12 months
• Firmus pulled its ASX IPO on weak demand
• RSM reported to be exploring an IPO
• Monzo courts CVC and Advent after Nubank talks collapse
• Citrin Cooperman resold at 15 times EBITDA versus 11 times in 2021
• Jollibee sold 11% of Highlands Coffee back to its founder
• MadeGood's parent became a unicorn after a Prelude exit

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Sector and regional patterns

• Under 200 PE accounting deals led to nearly 900 add-ons
• 97.8% of physician practice exits went to another PE firm
• Over $8 billion of PE capital moved through background screening
• Mega-deals shifted to gaming, data centres and power
• Twelve of 30 NBA teams have PE investors
• Spain posted record H1 2026 fundraising and divestments
• India's PE exits hit $32.9 billion in 2025

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Value creation and exit readiness

• Over 60% of PE firms cite KPI readiness as top exit challenge
• Strategic, sponsor and public buyers want different finance functions
• Two thirds of overdue dollars sit in the top 10% of invoices
• A $1 million AI bill can cost $15 million at exit
• AI productivity gains do not automatically lift EBITDA margins
• Semantic models, ontologies and knowledge graphs solve different problems
• Some PE firms now hire for judgment over prior exits

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Founders and owners

• Rollover equity is a restricted position, not cash
• Locked rollover can make staying independent pay more
• Exit outcomes are set at acquisition
• Few founders diligence their buyer
• Businesses that sell well are already well run
• Founders who roll equity miss PE board demands
• Berkshire split succession into operating and culture roles

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Launches and new resources

• Capital Intelligence with Nasdaq tracks LP relationships for GPs
• Underwriting Healthcare is a new monthly newsletter
• LP-SIDE is a new series on institutional private capital
• The Growth Engine is a new book on exit readiness

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Thanks to Tarek A., Mark Jansen, Carsten W., Jean Max Constant, Stephen Segel, Bill H., Alexis Sikorsky, Adam Coffey, Camille Fetter, Brad Wolfe, Panagiotis Kriaris, Preston Alexander, Nikola Lazarov, Chandan Mahajan, Christopher J. Conti, BJ Feller, Mac K., Jason Morris, Asif Rahman, Gavin Gibbons, James Ransome, Andy Knox, Jay Farber, Amjad M. Hammad, Marcel van Oost, Brian C., Ben Banks., Nikola Vuković, Sainty Thomas, CA Sakchi Jain, Lam Hai Phung Le, Jason Downie, Isaac T., Philip De Vusser, Nicola Ebmeyer, Neil Gentleman-Hobbs, Alvaro Carcel Ribes, Julian Riedlbauer, Gregor Beusmans, Tom Cane, Natalie Townsend, Travis Lay, Thomas Hallinger, Ivan Lehon and Torge Barkholtz and everyone else who contributed insights to this edition. Find the full list of posts and voices on LinkedIn: